INTERVAL FORECAST OF DEGRADATION OF ELECTRICAL PARAMETER FOR ELECTRONIC DEVICES

Abstract

In individual forecasting of parameter values and, therefore, gradual refuses of electronic devices' (ED) with simulation effects method the reliability prediction can be judged by average prediction error, which gives only average reliability prediction picture. In particular cases parameter's true value deviation for a new instance can differ noticeably from the predicted values. For practical problems of ED gradual failures forecasting for future developments it's important to have interval forecast of functional parameter. This forecast is proposed to be obtained by using the control sample and hypothesis on the normal distribution of ED parameter values forecasting relative error.