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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">bsuir</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Доклады БГУИР</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Doklady BGUIR</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1729-7648</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2708-0382</issn><publisher><publisher-name>БГУИР</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">bsuir-528</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>Статьи</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>МЕТОД ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ НАДЕЖНОСТИ ПРОГРАММНЫХ СРЕДСТВ</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>METHOD TO PREDICT SOFTWARE RELIABILITY</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Неборский</surname><given-names>С. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Niaborski</surname><given-names>S. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">noemail@neicon.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Бахтизин</surname><given-names>В. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Bakhtizin</surname><given-names>V. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">noemail@neicon.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff xml:lang="ru" id="aff-1"><institution>Белорусский государственный университет информатики и радиоэлектроники</institution><country>Belarus</country></aff><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2015</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>03</day><month>06</month><year>2019</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>5</issue><fpage>41</fpage><lpage>46</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Неборский С.Н., Бахтизин В.В., 2019</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2019</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Неборский С.Н., Бахтизин В.В.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Niaborski S.N., Bakhtizin V.V.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://doklady.bsuir.by/jour/article/view/528">https://doklady.bsuir.by/jour/article/view/528</self-uri><abstract><p>Предлагается метод прогнозирования надежности программных средств на основе корреляции между подхарактеристиками надежности и ошибками программного средства. Наличие корреляции определяется путем расчета коэффициента Пирсона по собранным статистическим данным, при этом обосновывается выбор диапазона значений коэффициента, направление корреляции и уровень значимости, в результате чего строится единичная матрица соответствия подхарактеристик надежности группам ошибок программного средства. Предлагается интеграция данного метода прогнозирования надежности с таким гибким методом разработки программных средств, как экстремальное программирование.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>A method to predict the reliability of software is introduced in this paper. The method is based on the calculation of correlation between reliability measures and software errors. The dependency between errors and reliability is defined by calculating Pearson correlation ratio, which is used further to build the identity matrix to match error groups and reliability measures. Input for this calculation is well defined and explained including the direction of the correlation and confidence level. This paper also proposes the way to integrate the introduced method into agile software development process.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>прогнозирование надежности программных средств</kwd><kwd>оценка надежности программных средств</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Sillitti A., Ceschi M., Russo B. // Software Metrics. 2005. P. 10-17.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Sillitti A., Ceschi M., Russo B. // Software Metrics. 2005. P. 10-17.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit2"><label>2</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Pandey A.K., Goyal N.K. Early Software Reliability Prediction. 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